As the price of XRP surged to an all-time high of $1.96 in 2021, its market capitalization at one point reached $88 billion. But subsequently declined by 70% following the US SEC lawsuit incident which fueled the market controversy over the “millionaire potential of xrp.”. According to CoinMarketCap data, at the fourth quarter of 2023, XRP daily trading volumes stood firm at 1.5-2 billion US dollars, which accounts for 5.3% of the total cryptocurrency trading volume, demonstrating a considerable liquidity advantage. Should Ripple reach a comprehensive settlement with US regulators in 2025, Bloomberg Industry Research suggests that the price of XRP can break through the $3.5 threshold and the early investors’ return rate (e.g., those who bought at $0.006 in 2017) will be in excess of 580 times, with an original principal of $100,000 reaching $58 million.
According to technical usage scenarios evaluation, RippleNet has teamed up with more than 300 financial institutions around the world (including Santander and Bank of America), making cross-border payments 60% cheaper and cutting the cost per transaction to 0.00001 XRP (approximately 0.003 US dollars). In comparison, the traditional SWIFT mechanism takes 3 to 5 working days to process cross-border remittances and cost between 30 to 50 US dollars. If Ripple can get 15% of the global market share for cross-border payments by the year 2025 (currently approximately 5%), according to a McKinsey report, its online transaction volume per day will cross 5 million, and the demand for XRP will grow by more than 300%. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s 2023 report mentioned that the banks’ settlement efficiency with blockchain technology has increased by 40%, while the XRP Ledger’s per-second transaction processing capacity (TPS) has reached 1,500 times, which is three times Visa’s network. The technological advantage buttresses its long-term worth.
Risk factors cannot be overlooked, however. According to CryptoCompare data, XRP’s price volatility (30-day annualized standard deviation) in 2023 was 85%, higher than Bitcoin at 45% and Ethereum at 60%. In the case of an overall market decline, XRP would fall to the $0.3 support level (the lowest during 2023), with investors losing more than 50%. Additionally, the Digital Asset Market Structure Act currently pending in the US Congress can impose a compliance cost of 20% to 30% on XRP, cutting into its margin. Despite this, a Finder’s expert panel poll shows that 73% of participants believe there is a 30% probability that XRP will break through $5 by 2025. If this is achieved, 90% of the top 1% of the existing holdings (approximately 35,000) will return a million dollars.
There are past circumstances that can serve as yardsticks: During the Bitcoin fork in 2017, XRP’s value had risen by 850% in six months. But after the surge in Grayscale Fund’s holding of XRP derivatives in 2021, its value increased by 120% weekly. If similar market catalysts emerge in 2025 (e.g., utilization of the XRP Ledger for central bank digital currency interoperability), combined with the $3.5 trillion incremental cross-border payment market created by the return of the world economy, xrp millionaire potential may once again be re-launched. But investors need to hedge risks. It is recommended to control the distribution of cryptocurrencies in 5% to 10% of total assets and use a dynamic take-profit plan (e.g., reducing 20% of the position for each 50% increase) to deal with potential volatility.